Influence of ecosystem and disturbance on near‐surface permafrost distribution, Whatì, Northwest Territories, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract For remote communities in the discontinuous permafrost zone, access to permafrost distribution maps for hazard assessment is limited and more general products are often inadequate for use in local‐scale planning. In this study we apply established analytical methods to illustrate a time‐ and cost‐efficient method for conducting community‐scale permafrost mapping in the community of Whatì, Northwest Territories, Canada. We ran a binary logistic regression (BLR) using a combination of field data, digital surface model‐derived variables, and remotely sensed products. Independent variables included vegetation, topographic position index, and elevation bands. The dependent variable was sourced from 139 physical checks of near‐surface permafrost presence/absence sampled across the variable boreal–wetland environment. Vegetation is the strongest predictor of near‐surface permafrost in the regression. The regression predicts that 50.0% (minimum confidence: 36%) of the vegetated area is underlain by near‐surface permafrost with a spatial accuracy of 72.8%. Analysis of data recorded across various burnt and not‐burnt environments indicated that recent burn scenarios have significantly influenced the distribution of near‐surface permafrost in the community. A spatial burn analysis predicted up to an 18.3% reduction in near‐surface permafrost coverage, in a maximum burn scenario without factoring in the influence of climate change. The study highlights the potential that in an ecosystem with virtually homogeneous air temperature, ecosystem structure and disturbance history drive short‐term changes in permafrost distribution and evolution. Thus, at the community level these factors should be considered as seriously as changes to air temperature as climate changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".