Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ( $$\Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ( $$\Delta \zeta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> <mml:mi>ζ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling $$\hbox {CO}_{{2}}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msub> <mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of $$\Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects $$\Delta \zeta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> <mml:mi>ζ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean $$\Delta \zeta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> <mml:mi>ζ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> and $$\Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".