System Thinking Approach toward Reclamation of Regional Water Management under Changing Climate Conditions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper represents a streamflow prediction model with the approach of ensemble multi-GCM downscaling and system dynamics (SD) for the Aji-Chay watershed located in northwest Iran. In this study, firstly, the precipitation and temperature projection for the future was assessed according to the climate change impact using a statistical downscaling technique, i.e., Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG); secondly, a rainfall-runoff model for future horizons was developed according to artificial neural networks (ANN); finally, an SD model was developed according to plausible reclamation scenarios, i.e., cloud seeding, increasing the irrigation efficiency and reducing agricultural production, controlling policies on groundwater withdrawal as well as environmental awareness, and cultivation to reduce domestic consumption to achieve sustainable development. For downscaling purposes, the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) including EC-EARTH, HadGEM2, MIROC5, MPI-ESM from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were applied. The results of multi-GCM downscaling indicated an ascending trend of 0.1 °C to +1.3 °C for temperature and a descending trend of 17 to 23% for precipitation by 2040 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Moreover, the results of the SD model revealed that none of the individual reclamation scenarios were impressive on water balance sustainable conditions; instead, the simultaneous implementation of all plausible scenarios managed to meet the requirements of socio-environment aspects as well as sustainability approaches.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".