Early Prediction of COVID-19 Patient Survival by Targeted Plasma Multi-Omics and Machine Learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent surge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations severely challenges healthcare systems around the globe and has increased the demand for reliable tests predictive of disease severity and mortality. Using multiplexed targeted mass spectrometry assays on a robust triple quadrupole MS setup which is available in many clinical laboratories, we determined the precise concentrations of hundreds of proteins and metabolites in plasma from hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We observed a clear distinction between COVID-19 patients and controls and, strikingly, a significant difference between survivors and nonsurvivors. With increasing length of hospitalization, the survivors' samples showed a trend toward normal concentrations, indicating a potential sensitive readout of treatment success. Building a machine learning multi-omic model that considers the concentrations of 10 proteins and five metabolites, we could predict patient survival with 92% accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.97) on the day of hospitalization. Hence, our standardized assays represent a unique opportunity for the early stratification of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".