Mechanisms, volumetric assessment, and prognosis for rapid coastal erosion of Tuktoyaktuk Island, an important natural barrier for the harbour and community
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The coastline of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) in the Mackenzie–Beaufort region of the western Canadian Arctic is characterised by rapid erosion of ice-bonded sediments with abundant excess ground ice, resulting in widespread thermal and mechanical process interactions in the shore zone. Coastal communities within the ISR are acutely aware of the rapidly eroding coastline and its impacts on infrastructure, subsistence activities, cultural or ancestral sites, and natural habitats. Tuktoyaktuk Island is a large natural barrier protecting the harbour and surrounding community from exposure to waves. It is threatened by coastal erosion, a better understanding of which will inform adaptation strategies. Using historical and recent aerial imagery, high-resolution digital elevation models, cliff geomorphology, stratigraphy, and sedimentology, including ground-ice content, this study documents erosional processes, recession rates, volume losses, and sediment delivery since 1947 and projected into the future. Erosion along the northwest-facing (exposed) cliff, primarily by thermo-abrasional undercutting and block failure, has accelerated since 2000 to a mean of 1.80 ± 0.02 m/year, a 22% increase over the previous 15 years and 14% faster than 1947–2000. Lower recession rates on the harbour side of the island increased more than two-fold. Projection of future shoreline vectors by extrapolation, using the post-2000 accelerated coastal recession rates at 284 transects, points to breaching of this vital natural harbour barrier by 2044, after which rapid realignment is expected to occur as the new inlet evolves. Further acceleration of rates, as seems highly likely, brings the breaching date closer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".