Comparative Reconstruction Probabilistically: The Role of Inventory and Phonotactics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
I introduce a novel quantitative methodology for evaluating manual comparative reconstructions. This method is incumbent on the existence of a manual comparative reconstruction and, unlike previous quantitative methods, cannot give a result contradictory to the reconstruction. The primary goal for this framework is to reconcile traditional and quantitative methodologies and act as an objective and accessible platform for comparative reconstruction, thereby extending the scope of historical linguistics further into the past. A few theoretical corollaries of the framework are also presented. It is shown that the likelihood that a reconstruction is spurious is related to some of the phonological properties of the descendent language. This likelihood is inversely correlated with mean word-length and segmental inventory size. Additionally, most active phonological processes and cooccurrence restrictions in the language – such as phonotactic constraints, prosodic effects, segment harmony, and neutralization – all serve to increase the likelihood that a reconstruction to that language is spurious.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.075 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".