Alien insect dispersal mediated by the global movement of commodities
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Globalization and economic growth are recognized as key drivers of biological invasions. Alien species have become a feature of almost every biological community worldwide, and rates of new introductions continue to rise as the movement of people and goods accelerates. Insects are among the most numerous and problematic alien organisms, and are mainly introduced unintentionally with imported cargo or arriving passengers. However, the processes occurring prior to insect introductions remain poorly understood. We used a unique dataset of 1,902,392 border interception records from inspections at air, land, and maritime ports in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Japan, USA, and Canada to identify key commodities associated with insect movement through trade and travel. In total, 8939 species were intercepted, and commodity association data were available for 1242 species recorded between 1960 and 2019. We used rarefaction and extrapolation methods to estimate the total species richness and diversity associated with different commodity types. Plant and wood products were the main commodities associated with insect movement across cargo, passenger baggage, and international mail. Furthermore, certain species were mainly associated with specific commodities within these, and other broad categories. More closely related species tended to share similar commodity associations, but this occurred largely at the genus level rather than within orders or families. These similarities within genera can potentially inform pathway management of new alien species. Combining interception records across regions provides a unique window into the unintentional movement of insects, and provides valuable information on establishment risks associated with different commodity types and pathways.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".