Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System
Bibliographic record
Abstract
first_page settings Order Article Reprints Font Type: Arial Georgia Verdana Font Size: Aa Aa Aa Line Spacing: Column Width: Background: Open AccessAbstract Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System † by Darko Stipaničev *, Marin Bugarić, Ljiljana Šerić, Damir Krstinić and Dunja Božić-Štulić Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture (FESB) University of Split, 21000 Split, Croatia * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. † Presented at the Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk, Sardinia, Italy, 3–6 May 2022. Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 34; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 Published: 9 August 2022 (This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk) Download Download PDF Download XML Download Epub Versions Notes Identifying the danger of fire is important for both wildfire prevention and protection. It can be useful for improving automatic fire detection systems, but also for many other fire-fighting activities that happen before the actual wildfire. The Croatian wildfire risk index is related to estimation of wildfire ignition danger and propagation danger. It is calculated on a micro-location level; therefore, it is a site-specific wildfire risk index. During its development, we have studied the possible influence of various parameters on risk index value using the correlation analysis with past wildfires in Split-Dalmatia County. Finally, two categories of parameters have been chosen:Static parameters: vegetation (fuel fire sensitivity), terrain configuration (elevation, slope, aspect) and anthropogenic parameters (settlements, roads, transmission lines);Dynamic parameters: wind speed and direction (correlated with slope and aspect) and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Dynamic parameters are provided by the Croatian Meteorological Service once a day with 24 h forecast by ALADIN model in a 3 h time scale. The relative influence of specific parameter to overall risk index value were optimized by genetic algorithms.In its present version, it is integrated with the Croatian online wildfire intelligent monitoring and surveillance system (OIV Fire Detect AI) installed in Croatian Dalmatian counties and has been used by Croatian firefighters in everyday practice since 2016. Currently, we are working on its further improvement through the H2020 FirEUrisk project, particularly in parts dedicated to propagation danger and wildfire vulnerability, but also in more accurate determination of parameters' influence and new user-friendly visualization.In our research, we will describe in more detail how the Croatian wildfire risk index is calculated and used, including its statistical evaluation, but also how it will be improved through FirEUrisk project. Author ContributionsConceptualization, D.S. and M.B. and L.Š.; methodology, D.S. and L.Š.; software, M.B.; validation, D.K., D.B.-Š.; investigation, D.K.; resources, L.Š.; data curation, D.B.-Š.; writing—original draft preparation, D.S. and M.B.; writing—review and editing, D.S. and M.B. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.FundingThis project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003890.Institutional Review Board StatementNot applicable.Informed Consent StatementNot applicable.Data Availability StatementNot applicable.Conflicts of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest.Publisher's Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Share and Cite MDPI and ACS Style Stipaničev, D.; Bugarić, M.; Šerić, L.; Krstinić, D.; Božić-Štulić, D. Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System. Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17, 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 AMA Style Stipaničev D, Bugarić M, Šerić L, Krstinić D, Božić-Štulić D. Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System. Environmental Sciences Proceedings. 2022; 17(1):34. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 Chicago/Turabian Style Stipaničev, Darko, Marin Bugarić, Ljiljana Šerić, Damir Krstinić, and Dunja Božić-Štulić. 2022. "Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System" Environmental Sciences Proceedings 17, no. 1: 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 Find Other Styles Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here. Article Metrics No No Article Access Statistics Multiple requests from the same IP address are counted as one view.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".