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Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System

2022· article· en· W4290987661 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Darko Stipaničev, Marin Bugarić, Ljiljana Šerić, Damir Krstinić, Dunja Božić-Štulić

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicFire effects on ecosystems
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsIndex (typography)Environmental scienceVegetation (pathology)TerrainComputer scienceMeteorologyForestryGeographyPhysical geographyEnvironmental resource managementRemote sensingCartographyWorld Wide Web

Abstract

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first_page settings Order Article Reprints Font Type: Arial Georgia Verdana Font Size: Aa Aa Aa Line Spacing:    Column Width:    Background: Open AccessAbstract Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System † by Darko Stipaničev *, Marin Bugarić, Ljiljana Šerić, Damir Krstinić and Dunja Božić-Štulić Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture (FESB) University of Split, 21000 Split, Croatia * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. † Presented at the Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk, Sardinia, Italy, 3–6 May 2022. Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 34; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 Published: 9 August 2022 (This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk) Download Download PDF Download XML Download Epub Versions Notes Identifying the danger of fire is important for both wildfire prevention and protection. It can be useful for improving automatic fire detection systems, but also for many other fire-fighting activities that happen before the actual wildfire. The Croatian wildfire risk index is related to estimation of wildfire ignition danger and propagation danger. It is calculated on a micro-location level; therefore, it is a site-specific wildfire risk index. During its development, we have studied the possible influence of various parameters on risk index value using the correlation analysis with past wildfires in Split-Dalmatia County. Finally, two categories of parameters have been chosen:Static parameters: vegetation (fuel fire sensitivity), terrain configuration (elevation, slope, aspect) and anthropogenic parameters (settlements, roads, transmission lines);Dynamic parameters: wind speed and direction (correlated with slope and aspect) and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Dynamic parameters are provided by the Croatian Meteorological Service once a day with 24 h forecast by ALADIN model in a 3 h time scale. The relative influence of specific parameter to overall risk index value were optimized by genetic algorithms.In its present version, it is integrated with the Croatian online wildfire intelligent monitoring and surveillance system (OIV Fire Detect AI) installed in Croatian Dalmatian counties and has been used by Croatian firefighters in everyday practice since 2016. Currently, we are working on its further improvement through the H2020 FirEUrisk project, particularly in parts dedicated to propagation danger and wildfire vulnerability, but also in more accurate determination of parameters' influence and new user-friendly visualization.In our research, we will describe in more detail how the Croatian wildfire risk index is calculated and used, including its statistical evaluation, but also how it will be improved through FirEUrisk project. Author ContributionsConceptualization, D.S. and M.B. and L.Š.; methodology, D.S. and L.Š.; software, M.B.; validation, D.K., D.B.-Š.; investigation, D.K.; resources, L.Š.; data curation, D.B.-Š.; writing—original draft preparation, D.S. and M.B.; writing—review and editing, D.S. and M.B. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.FundingThis project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003890.Institutional Review Board StatementNot applicable.Informed Consent StatementNot applicable.Data Availability StatementNot applicable.Conflicts of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest.Publisher's Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Share and Cite MDPI and ACS Style Stipaničev, D.; Bugarić, M.; Šerić, L.; Krstinić, D.; Božić-Štulić, D. Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System. Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17, 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 AMA Style Stipaničev D, Bugarić M, Šerić L, Krstinić D, Božić-Štulić D. Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System. Environmental Sciences Proceedings. 2022; 17(1):34. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 Chicago/Turabian Style Stipaničev, Darko, Marin Bugarić, Ljiljana Šerić, Damir Krstinić, and Dunja Božić-Štulić. 2022. "Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System" Environmental Sciences Proceedings 17, no. 1: 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 Find Other Styles Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here. Article Metrics No No Article Access Statistics Multiple requests from the same IP address are counted as one view.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.033
Threshold uncertainty score0.066

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0020.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.005
GPT teacher head0.182
Teacher spread0.177 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Published2022
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