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VenueThe Lancet Infectious Diseases · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicRespiratory viral infections research
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersStanford Cardiovascular Institute, School of Medicine, Stanford UniversityNational Institute of General Medical SciencesFaculty of Medicine and Health, University of SydneyAmity Institute of Biotechnology, Amity UniversityCollege of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates UniversitySchool of Medicine, University of Alabama at BirminghamCollege of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Arizona State UniversitySouth Eastern Sydney Local Health DistrictUniversity of Technology SydneyTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesUniversity of Texas MD Anderson Cancer CenterDirectorate for Biological SciencesUniwersytet OpolskiGeorge Institute for Global HealthUniwersytet ŁódzkiMaragheh University of Medical SciencesPirogov Russian National Research Medical UniversityUniversitas Sam RatulangiWestern Sydney UniversityUniversity of New South WalesKermanshah University of Medical SciencesRajshahi UniversityMashhad University of Medical SciencesUniversitas PadjadjaranMedical Research CouncilUniversity of TlemcenJahrom University of Medical SciencesUniversity of JeddahShahid Sadoughi University of Medical SciencesChongqing University of Science and TechnologyI.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical UniversityLorestan University of Medical SciencesKwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyGonabad University of Medical SciencesUniversity of Engineering and Technology, LahoreWalailak UniversityUniversity of ColomboJawaharlal Institute Of Postgraduate Medical Education and ResearchChildren's Hospital of PhiladelphiaXiamen UniversityUniversity of ZanjanNational Heart, Lung, and Blood InstituteKhulna UniversityUnited Arab Emirates UniversityUniversity of GondarZanjan University of Medical SciencesYasuj University of Medical SciencesTarbiat Modares UniversityPeking UniversityUniversity of Health and Allied SciencesShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesGolestan University of Medical SciencesUniversitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie "Carol Davila" BucureştiUniversiti Sultan Zainal AbidinMajmaah UniversityRajarata University of Sri LankaShaqra UniversityUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisWorld Health OrganizationUrmia UniversityArak University of Medical SciencesAlborz University of Medical SciencesUniversidade do PortoTrakya ÜniversitesiWuhan UniversityAfrican Population and Health Research CenterTechnische Universität BerlinLung Foundation AustraliaVictoria UniversityUniversity of TsukubaHawassa UniversityCentre Hospitalier Universitaire VaudoisOulun YliopistoBahir Dar UniversityUniversitätsklinikum EssenUniversitat de BarcelonaShahrekord University of Medical SciencesUniversity of JordanMonash UniversityUniversità degli Studi del Piemonte OrientaleUniversidade de São PauloMasarykova UniverzitaQazvin University of Medical SciencesGuilan University of Medical SciencesInstituto Politécnico do PortoNational and Kapodistrian University of AthensBirjand University of Medical SciencesNankai UniversityMazandaran University of Medical SciencesShahrekord UniversityBanaras Hindu UniversityNational Institutes of HealthUniversity of Veterinary and Animal SciencesDivision of Human Resource DevelopmentChinese University of Hong KongKing Fahad Medical CityHaramaya UniversitySamara UniversityCoventry UniversityUniversity College LondonUniversiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaKuwait UniversityUniversity of WollongongKing Abdulaziz UniversityIsfahan University of Medical SciencesInternational Medical UniversityIslamic Azad UniversityGachon UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill UniversityKyung Hee UniversityPohang University of Science and TechnologyUniversitetet i BergenKing Saud UniversityCollege of Science and Engineering, University of MinnesotaShiraz University of Medical SciencesAin Shams UniversityQueensland University of TechnologyBabol University of Medical SciencesShahroud University of Medical SciencesUniversity of Central PunjabJames Cook UniversityGastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research CenterTabriz University of Medical SciencesUniversity of Cape TownKhalifa University of Science, Technology and ResearchVictoria University of WellingtonUniversità degli Studi di FirenzeCharles Sturt UniversityCleveland ClinicUniversity College CorkAmity UniversityNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchPublic Health EnglandImperial College LondonUniversity of TorontoArizona State UniversityMacquarie UniversityShiraz UniversityJordan University of Science and TechnologyHamad Bin Khalifa UniversityStudent Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesUniversità degli Studi di Napoli Federico IILa Trobe UniversityUniversidad de ColimaDilla UniversityMcMaster UniversityAmirkabir University of TechnologyUniversity of OxfordUniversity of WarwickUniversidad de AntioquiaHamad Medical CorporationKrishna Institute Of Medical Sciences Deemed To Be UniversityWashington University in St. LouisNational Center of Neurology and PsychiatryUniversity of Southern CaliforniaMadda Walabu UniversityKerman University of Medical SciencesUniversity of ReadingUniversiteit StellenboschRoyal College of Surgeons in IrelandIndiana University HealthYazd UniversityTehran Heart CenterChongqing UniversityDire Dawa UniversityUniversity of Petroleum and Energy StudiesIran University of Medical SciencesU.S. Department of Veterans AffairsCurtin University of TechnologyUniversity of CreteRafsanjan University of Medical SciencesBall State UniversityAddis Ababa UniversitySultan Qaboos UniversityUniversity of TabrizGeorgetown UniversityAhmadu Bello UniversityBournemouth UniversityUniversity of PittsburghDeakin UniversityHelsingin YliopistoBill and Melinda Gates FoundationInstitució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis AvançatsFederation University AustraliaAlfaisal UniversityCity University of Hong KongUniverzita Karlova v PrazeMcGill UniversityPeking University Third HospitalCOMSATS Institute of Information TechnologyDongguk UniversityRice UniversityKasturba Medical College, ManipalAhvaz Jundishapur University of Medical SciencesUniversità di CataniaEmory UniversityUniversità degli Studi della Campania Luigi VanvitelliUniversity of KarachiWestfälische Wilhelms-Universität MünsterIndian Council of Medical ResearchCancer Institute NSWWellcome TrustYonsei UniversityPfizer
KeywordsMedicineIncidence (geometry)DemographyPopulationDisease burdenVerbal autopsyDiseaseCause of deathPediatricsGerontologyEnvironmental healthInternal medicine
Abstract
fetched live from OpenAlexBACKGROUND: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. METHODS: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths. INTERPRETATION: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.045
Threshold uncertainty score0.959
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Teacher spread0.297 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
