A Recurrent Neural Network Model for Predicting Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time After Treatment With Heparin: Retrospective Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation therapy with heparin is a frequent treatment in intensive care units and is monitored by activated partial thromboplastin clotting time (aPTT). It has been demonstrated that reaching an established anticoagulation target within 24 hours is associated with favorable outcomes. However, patients respond to heparin differently and reaching the anticoagulation target can be challenging. Machine learning algorithms may potentially support clinicians with improved dosing recommendations. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates a range of machine learning algorithms on their capability of predicting the patients' response to heparin treatment. In this analysis, we apply, for the first time, a model that considers time series. METHODS: We extracted patient demographics, laboratory values, dialysis and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation treatments, and scores from the hospital information system. We predicted the numerical values of aPTT laboratory values 24 hours after continuous heparin infusion and evaluated 7 different machine learning models. The best-performing model was compared to recently published models on a classification task. We considered all data before and within the first 12 hours of continuous heparin infusion as features and predicted the aPTT value after 24 hours. RESULTS: The distribution of aPTT in our cohort of 5926 hospital admissions was highly skewed. Most patients showed aPTT values below 75 s, while some outliers showed much higher aPTT values. A recurrent neural network that consumes a time series of features showed the highest performance on the test set. CONCLUSIONS: A recurrent neural network that uses time series of features instead of only static and aggregated features showed the highest performance in predicting aPTT after heparin treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".