Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction Using a Bus Network Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Model
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Short-term passenger flow prediction is critical to managing real-time bus networks, responding to emergencies quickly, making crowdedness-aware route recommendations, and adjusting service schedules over time. Some recent studies have attempted to predict passenger flow using deep learning models. The complexity of transportation networks, coupled with emerging real-time data collection and information dissemination systems, has increased the popularity of these approaches. There has also been a growing interest in using a new deep learning approach, the graph neural network that captures graph dependence by passing messages between its nodes. Researchers in various transportation domains have used such tools for modeling and predicting transportation networks, as many of these networks consist of nodes and links and can be naturally categorized as graphs. This paper develops a bus network graph convolutional long short-term memory (BNG-ConvLSTM) neural network model to forecast short-term passenger flows in bus networks. Validating the proposed model is done using real-world data collected from the Laval bus network in Canada. Based on a set of comparisons between the proposed model and some other popular deep learning approaches, it clearly indicates that the BNG-ConvLSTM model is more scalable and robust than other baselines in making network-wide predictions for short-term passenger flows.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it