Age-Stratified 30-day Rehospitalization and Mortality and Predictors of Rehospitalization Among Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Medicare Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Recent studies suggest young adults with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have high 30-day readmission rates, which may necessitate tailored readmission reduction strategies. To aid in risk stratification for future strategies, we measured 30-day rehospitalization and mortality rates among Medicare beneficiaries with SLE and determined rehospitalization predictors by age. METHODS: In a 2014 20% national Medicare sample of hospitalizations, rehospitalization risk and mortality within 30 days of discharge were calculated for young (aged 18-35 yrs), middle-aged (aged 36-64 yrs), and older (aged 65+ yrs) beneficiaries with and without SLE. Multivariable generalized estimating equation models were used to predict rehospitalization rates among patients with SLE by age group using patient, hospital, and geographic factors. RESULTS: Among 1.39 million Medicare hospitalizations, 10,868 involved beneficiaries with SLE. Hospitalized young adult beneficiaries with SLE were more racially diverse, were living in more disadvantaged areas, and had more comorbidities than older beneficiaries with SLE and those without SLE. Thirty-day rehospitalization was 36% among young adult beneficiaries with SLE-40% higher than peers without SLE and 85% higher than older beneficiaries with SLE. Longer length of stay and higher comorbidity risk score increased odds of rehospitalization in all age groups, whereas specific comorbid condition predictors and their effect varied. Our models, which incorporated neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage, had moderate-to-good predictive value (C statistics 0.67-0.77), outperforming administrative data models lacking comprehensive social determinants in other conditions. CONCLUSION: Young adults with SLE on Medicare had very high 30-day rehospitalization at 36%. Considering socioeconomic disadvantage and comorbidities provided good prediction of rehospitalization risk, particularly in young adults. Young beneficiaries with SLE with comorbidities should be a focus of programs aimed at reducing rehospitalizations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".