Influence of The Madden-Julian Oscillation on Continental United States Hurricane Landfalls
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts North Atlantic hurricanes, with more hurricane activity occurring when the MJO favors enhanced convection over Africa and the tropical Indian Ocean and suppressed hurricane activity occurring when the MJO favors enhanced convection over the tropical Pacific. Using data from 1905-2015, we find more hurricanes make landfall in the continental US when the MJO enhances convection over the tropical Indian Ocean. In addition, when the MJO enhances convection over the Western Hemisphere, tropical cyclones tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean, leading to more Gulf Coast landfalls. As the MJO moves to the Indian Ocean, more storms form in the tropical Atlantic, increasing the number of Florida and East Coast landfalls. The MJO’s modulation of tropical cyclone steering winds appears to be secondary to its effects on genesis locations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".