Long-Term Impacts of Forest Management Practices under Climate Change on Structure, Composition, and Fragmentation of the Canadian Boreal Landscape
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forest harvesting and fire are major disturbances in boreal forests. Forest harvesting has modified stand successional pathways, which has led to compositional changes from the original conifer-dominated forests to predominantly mixed and hardwood forests. Boreal fire regimes are expected to change with future climate change. Using the LANDIS-II spatially explicit landscape model, we evaluated the effects of forest management scenarios and projected fire regimes under climate change in northeastern Canadian boreal forests, and we determined the subsequent alteration in stand- and landscape-level composition, succession, and spatial configuration of boreal forests. We observed that, in contrast to successional pathways that followed fire, successional pathways that followed forest harvesting favored mixed forests with a prevalence of shade-intolerant hardwoods for up to 300 y after harvesting. This trend was exacerbated under climate change scenarios where forests became dominated by hardwood species, particularly in ecoregions where these species were found currently in low abundance. Our results highlight the failure of existing forest management regimes to emulate the effects of natural disturbance regimes on boreal forest composition and configuration. This illustrates the risks to maintaining ecosystem goods and services over the long term and the exacerbation of this trend in the context of future climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".