Investigating contagion effect of the recent Turkey currency crisis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study empirically analyses the contagion effect of Turkey Lira crisis 2018 on the currencies of selected Asian (Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and India) and other six countries (Chile, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Russia and South Africa) using correlation and volatility analysis. The results of correlation analysis show that Turkey's lira bears a positive correlation with all the other select currencies in all the three periods; the whole period, the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period. Almost all the correlation coefficients are significant at 1% or 5% level of significance across the crisis and have increased after the recent turkey lira crisis. From the results of volatility spillover analysis using exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model, we infer that the Turkey currency crisis has affected the volatility of currencies of India, Brazil, Argentina & South Africa, and the effect being the least on the Indian rupee volatility while the maximum impact on the South African rand volatility.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".