Divergent responses of autumn vegetation phenology to climate extremes over northern middle and high latitudes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Compared with gradual climate change, extreme climatic events have more direct and dramatic impacts on vegetation growth. However, the influence of climate extremes on important phenological periods, such as the end of the growing season (EOS), remains unclear. Here, we investigate the temporal trends of EOS across different biomes and quantify the response of EOS to multiple climate extreme indices (CEIs). Location Northern middle and high latitudes. Time period 2000–2020. Major taxa studied Plants. Methods Three phenology extraction methods were used to compute EOS from satellite, FLUXNET and Pan European Phenology Project PEP725 phenological datasets. Different stress states of cold, hot, dry and wet extremes were represented by 12 CEIs. Partial correlation and ridge regression analysis were used to quantify the response of EOS to climate extremes across latitudinal and biome scales. Results Our study showed a delayed EOS in boreal biomes, but a significantly advanced EOS in temperate biomes. The advanced EOS induced by cold stress was observed for c . 80% of the vegetated pixels. The warm‐related CEIs delayed the EOS in high latitudes, and the delayed effect weakened or even reversed with decreasing latitude. In contrast, EOS exhibited opposite response patterns to dry days and wet‐related CEIs. Overall, EOS exhibited higher sensitivity to extreme temperature in boreal biomes than in temperate biomes. Specifically, continuous drought and high heat stress induced an earlier EOS in some temperate forest biomes, whereas moderate heat stress delayed the EOS in most study biomes. In contrast, EOS was not sensitive to extreme drought in water‐restricted biomes. Main conclusions EOS exhibited divergent responses to various climate extremes with different intensities and frequencies. Moreover, the response of EOS to extreme climate stress was dependent on the biome and latitude. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating the divergent extreme climate effects into vegetation phenological models and Earth system models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".