Two Decades-long Satellite Observations of Carbon Monoxide Confirm the Northern Hemispheric Wildfires Increase
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Biomass burning is an important and changing component of the global and hemispheric carbon cycles. Boreal forest fires in Russia and Canada are significant sources of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The influence of carbon monoxide (CO) on the greenhouse effect is practically absent: its main absorption bands of 4.6 and 2.3 μm are far away from the climatically important spectral regions. Meanwhile, CO concentrations in fire plumes are closely related to CO2 and CH4 emissions from fires. On the other hand, satellite measurements of CO are much simpler than those for the aforementioned gases. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) provides a satellite-based CO data set since October, 2002 up to now. This communication presents estimates of CO emissions from biomass burning north of 30° N using a simple two-box mass-balance model. These results correlate closely with independently estimated CO emissions from the GFED4 bottom-up data base. Both ones reported record high emissions in 2021 throughout two decades, double the annual emissions comparing to the previous years. There have been two years with extremely high emissions (2003 and 2021), but for the rest of data upward trend with a rate of 3.6 ± 2.2 Tg CO yr-2 (4.8 ± 2.7% yr-1), was found. A similar rate of CO emission follows from the GFED4 data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".