Behaviour is more important than thermal performance for an Arctic host–parasite system under climate change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is affecting Arctic ecosystems, including parasites. Predicting outcomes for host–parasite systems is challenging due to the complexity of multi-species interactions and the numerous, interacting pathways by which climate change can alter dynamics. Increasing temperatures may lead to faster development of free-living parasite stages but also higher mortality. Interactions between behavioural plasticity of hosts and parasites will also influence transmission processes. We combined laboratory experiments and population modelling to understand the impacts of changing temperatures on barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) and their common helminth ( Ostertagia gruehneri ). We experimentally determined the thermal performance curves for mortality and development of free-living parasite stages and applied them in a spatial host–parasite model that also included behaviour of the parasite (propensity for arrested development in the host) and host (long-distance migration). Sensitivity analyses showed that thermal responses had less of an impact on simulated parasite burdens than expected, and the effect differed depending on parasite behaviour. The propensity for arrested development and host migration led to distinct spatio-temporal patterns in infection. These results emphasize the importance of considering behaviour—and behavioural plasticity—when projecting climate-change impacts on host–parasite systems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".