Impact of correcting sub-daily climate model biases for hydrological studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The study of climate change impact on water resources has accelerated worldwide over the past 2 decades. An important component of such studies is the bias-correction step, which accounts for spatiotemporal biases present in climate model outputs over a reference period, and which allows for realistic streamflow simulations using future climate scenarios. Most of the literature on bias correction focuses on daily scale climate model temporal resolution. However, a large amount of regional and global climate simulations are becoming increasingly available at the sub-daily time step, and even extend to the hourly scale, with convection-permitting models exploring sub-hourly time resolution. Recent studies have shown that the diurnal cycle of variables simulated by climate models is also biased, which raises issues respecting the necessity (or not) of correcting such biases prior to generating streamflows at the sub-daily timescale. This paper investigates the impact of bias-correcting the diurnal cycle of climate model outputs on the computation of streamflow over 133 small to large North American catchments. A standard hydrological modeling chain was set up using the temperature and precipitation outputs from a high spatial (0.11 ∘ ) and temporal (1 h) regional climate model large ensemble (ClimEx-LE). Two bias-corrected time series were generated using a multivariate quantile mapping method, with and without correction of the diurnal cycles of temperature and precipitation. The impact of this correction was evaluated on three small (< 500 km 2 ), medium (between 500 and 1000 km 2 ), and large (> 1000 km 2 ) surface area catchment size classes. Results show relatively small (3 % to 5 %) but systematic decreases in the relative error of most simulated flow quantiles when bias-correcting the diurnal cycle of precipitation and temperature. There was a clear relationship with catchment size, with improvements being most noticeable for the small catchments. The diurnal cycle correction allowed for hydrological simulations to accurately represent the diurnal cycle of summer streamflow in small catchments. Bias-correcting the diurnal cycle of precipitation and temperature is therefore recommended when conducting impact studies at the sub-daily timescale on small catchments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".