Prehistoric perspectives can help interpret the present: 14 000 years of moose (<i>Alces alces</i>) in the Western Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rapidly changing climate at high latitudes has triggered a search for bellwethers of ecological change there. If the initial signs of change can be identified, perhaps we can predict where these changes will lead. Large-bodied, terrestrial herbivores are potential candidates for bellwether taxa because of the key roles they play in some ecological communities. Here, we assembled historical, archaeological, and paleontological records of moose ( Alces alces (Linnaeus, 1758)) from the western Arctic and subarctic. The results showed that rather than having recently invaded tundra regions in response to post Little Ice Age warming, moose have inhabited river corridors several hundred kilometres north of the closed, boreal forest since they first colonized North America across the Bering Land Bridge ca. 14 000 years ago. The combination of high mobility, fluctuation-prone metapopulations, and reliance on early successional vegetation makes changes in the northern range limits of moose undependable bellwethers for other biotic responses to changing climate. The history of moose at high latitudes illustrates how understanding what happened in prehistory is useful for correctly assigning significance and cause to present-day ecological changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".