Effect of the 2012 US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations on Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening in a Medicare Advantage Population
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In 2012, the US Preventive Service Task Force revised its recommendations for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening from "insufficient evidence" to "do not recommend" for men aged 70-74 while maintaining "do not recommend" for men aged 75+. METHODS: Using the difference-in-difference approach, we evaluated whether the rate of change in the use of low-value PSA screening differed between the control group (men aged 75+, N=7,856,204 person-years) and the intervention group (men aged 70-74, N=5,329,192 person-years) enrolling in the Medicare Advantage plan without a history of prostate cancer within the OptumLabs Data Warehouse claims data (2009-2019). A generalized estimating equation logistic model was specified with independent variables: an intervention group indicator, a pre- and post-period (after 2012 Q2) indicator, index time, and interaction terms. We assumed a 12-month dissemination period. RESULTS: Before the revised recommendation in 2012, the trends did not significantly differ between the 2 age groups with the odds of receiving PSA screening decreasing by 1.2% (95% confidence interval [1.0, 1.4%]) per quarter. However, the odds of receiving PSA screening increased by 3.0% [2.8, 3.2%] per quarter across both groups since the revision. There was no significant additional change in the trend for those aged 70-74 (0.1% [-0.2, 0.5%]). CONCLUSIONS: Although the 2012 US Preventive Service Task Force's recommendations were expected to only change behaviors among men aged 70-74, our analysis found that men aged 70-74 and aged 75+ exhibited similar trends from 2009 to 2019, including the increased use of low-value PSA screening since 2016. Multifaceted efforts to discourage low-value PSA screening would be important for a sustained impact.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".