Irminger Sea Is the Center of Action for Subpolar AMOC Variability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Significant societally important climate impacts can be caused by changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at higher latitudes. Focusing on variability and long‐term change of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA)—a key AMOC action center—and using eastern OSNAP array observations, we identify a distinct density and sea‐surface height signature of the AMOC strength in the Irminger Sea (2014–2018), reinforced and extended with an ocean reanalysis (1993–2018). Reconstruction of AMOC variability using Irminger Sea density shows strong control by the North Atlantic Oscillation on subpolar overturning on multiple timescales, achieved via the gyre circulation and waters from the Labrador Sea. Furthermore, the observed decrease of Irminger Sea density since the mid‐twentieth century (1950–2019) is suggestive of a long‐term AMOC weakening of 2.2 Sv or 13%, however, this trend remains statistically insignificant due to the large interannual and decadal variability of the SPNA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".