Seasonality of Hashimoto Thyroiditis: Infodemiology Study of Google Trends Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Hashimoto thyroiditis (HT) is an autoimmune thyroid disease and the leading cause of hypothyroidism in areas with sufficient iodine intake. The quality-of-life impact and financial burden of hypothyroidism and HT highlight the need for additional research investigating the disease etiology with the aim of revealing potential modifiable risk factors. OBJECTIVE: Implementation of measures against such risk factors, once identified, has the potential to lessen the financial burden while also improving the quality of life of many individuals. Therefore, we aimed to examine the potential seasonality of HT in Europe using the Google Trends data to explore whether there is a seasonal characteristic of Google searches regarding HT, examine the potential impact of the countries' geographic location on the potential seasonality, and identify potential modifiable risk factors for HT, thereby inspiring future research on the topic. METHODS: Monthly Google Trends data on the search topic "Hashimoto thyroiditis" were retrieved in a 17-year time frame from January 2004 to December 2020 for 36 European countries. A cosinor model analysis was conducted to evaluate potential seasonality. Simple linear regression was used to estimate the potential effect of latitude and longitude on seasonal amplitude and phase of the model outputs. RESULTS: =0.29; P=.002). Seasonal increases in HT search volume may therefore be a consequence of an increased incidence or higher disease activity. It is particularly interesting that in most countries, a seasonal peak occurred in spring and winter months; when viewed in the context of the statistically significant impact of geographical latitude on seasonality amplitude, this may indicate the potential role of vitamin D levels in the seasonality of HT. CONCLUSIONS: Significant seasonality of HT Google Trends search volume was observed in our study, with seasonal peaks in most countries occurring in spring and winter and with a significant impact of latitude on seasonality amplitude. Further studies on the topic of seasonality in HT and factors impacting it are required.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".