Quantification of Autoignition Risk in Aeroderivative Gas Turbine Premixers Using Incompletely Stirred Reactor and Surrogate Modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The design and operation of premixers for gas turbines must deal with the possibility of relatively rare events causing dangerous autoignition (AI). Rare AI events may occur in the presence of fluctuations of operational parameters, such as temperature and fuel composition, and must be understood and predicted. This work presents a methodology based on incompletely stirred reactor (ISR) and surrogate modeling to increase efficiency and feasibility in premixer design optimization for rare events. For a representative premixer, a space-filling design is used to sample the variability of three influential operational parameters. An ISR is reconstructed and solved in a postprocessing fashion for each sample, leveraging a well-resolved computational fluid dynamics solution of the non-reacting flow inside the premixer. Via detailed chemistry and reduced computational costs, ISR tracks the evolution of AI precursors and temperature conditioned on a mixture fraction. Accurate surrogate models are then trained for selected AI metrics on all ISR samples. The final quantification of the AI probability is achieved by querying the surrogate models via Monte Carlo sampling of the random parameters. The approach is fast and reliable so that user-controllable, independent variables can be optimized to maximize system performance while observing a constraint on the allowable probability of AI.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".