Drivers of winter population cycles in the Varied Thrush (<i>Ixoreus naevius</i>)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The drivers of year-to-year difference in winter abundance patterns, particularly dramatic in the “eruptions” of many boreal seed-eating birds, are poorly understood. Varied Thrush ( Ixoreus naevius (Gmelin, 1789)), endemic to the Pacific Northwest of North America, is a boreal species that exhibits pronounced, often biennially cyclic, changes in winter abundance within most of its normal wintering range. Although the drivers of this variability have not previously been explored, it has been suggested that differences in acorn abundance, a key winter food resource, might be important. Here, we examine three hypotheses for the drivers of this pattern: the acorn crop within the bird's normal winter range, weather within the bird's winter range, and weather during the previous breeding season within the bird's breeding range. Analyses supported the importance of breeding season conditions, particularly breeding season rainfall, with more birds wintering following wetter years. No support was found for the hypotheses that winter conditions, neither the acorn crop nor winter weather, correlate with winter abundance patterns. For this forest species, year-to-year differences in winter abundance patterns are apparently not driven by the “pull” of winter food supply or winter conditions, but by environmental factors during the prior breeding season that presumably affect reproductive success and subsequent population size.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".