Risk factors for infections after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP): a retrospective cohort analysis of US Medicare Fee-For-Service claims, 2015–2021
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Contaminated reprocessed duodenoscopes pose a serious threat to patients in the endoscopy unit. Despite manufacturer changes to reprocessing guidelines, 20% of reprocessed duodenoscopes meet criteria for quarantine-level contamination based on microbiological or ATP testing. We aimed to examine risk factors for postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) infection. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: US Medicare Fee-For-Service claims (2015-2021) and all-payer data (2017). PARTICIPANTS: In the Medicare data, 823 575 ERCP procedures were included. The all-payer five-state data, 16 609 procedures were included. INTERVENTIONS: ERCP was identified by Current Procedural Terminology and International Classification of Disease (ICD) procedure codes. We identified inpatient infections using ICD diagnosis codes. OUTCOME MEASURES: A logistic regression model predicted risk factors for infections occurring within 7-day and 30-day periods following ERCP. 7-day and 30-day all-cause hospitalisations and post-ERCP pancreatitis were also examined. RESULTS: Post-ERCP infection occurred within 3.5% of 7-day and 7.7% of 30-day periods in Medicare. Disposable duodenoscopes were billed in 711 procedures, with 1.4% (n=10, 7-day) and 3.5% (n=25, 30-day) post-ERCP infections. Urgent ERCPs were the strongest risk factor for infections in the 7-day period (OR 3.3, 95% CI 3.2 to 3.4). Chronic conditions, sex (male), age (older) and race (non-white) were also risk factors. In the all-payer five-state data, fewer infections (2.4%, 7 days) were observed. No difference arose between Medicare and other payers for 7-day period infections (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.3). CONCLUSIONS: Urgent ERCPs, patient chronic conditions and patient demographics are post-ERCP infection risk factors. Patients with infection risk factors should be targeted for specialised infection control prevention measures, including disposable duodenoscopes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".