Réserves de change : vers un nouveau normal ?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
En réponse à l’invasion de l’Ukraine, les avoirs de la Banque centrale de la Fédération de Russie ont été gelés par les États-Unis, l’Union européenne, le Royaume-Uni, le Canada, le Japon, l’Australie et la Suisse. C’est la première fois dans l’histoire qu’une action impliquant tous les membres du G7 vise une banque centrale du G20. Le gel des réserves met en évidence l’incidence des alliances stratégiques sur la capacité d’action d’une banque centrale. Cette situation pourrait servir de catalyseur à une tendance déjà enclenchée de diversification des réserves de portefeuilles, en particulier au profit de devises « non traditionnelles » comme le yuan chinois, mais aussi le dollar canadien, le won coréen et le franc suisse entre autres. Si elles intégraient à l’avenir davantage une dimension géopolitique, les stratégies d’accumulation de réserves comporteraient un risque de régionalisation et de fragmentation du Système monétaire international. Classification JEL : E42, E58, F33
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.011 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.012 | 0.023 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.016 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".