An Economic Impact Model for Estimating the Value to Health Systems of a Digital Intervention for Diabetes Primary Care: Development and Usefulness Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Diabetes is associated with significant long-term costs for both patients and health systems. Regular primary care visits aligned with American Diabetes Association guidelines could help mitigate those costs while generating near-term revenue for health systems. Digital interventions prompting primary care visits among unengaged patients could provide significant economic value back to the health system as well as individual patients, but only few economic models have been put forth to understand this value. OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to establish a data-based method to estimate the economic impact to a health system of interventions promoting primary care visits for people with diabetes who have been historically unengaged with their care. The model was built with a focus on a specific digital health intervention, Precision Nudging, but can be used to quantify the value of other interventions driving primary care usage among patients with diabetes. METHODS: value to understand how frequently they should be visiting a primary care provider. The model also accounts for the payer mix among the population with diabetes, documenting the percentage of insurance coverage through a commercial plan, Medicare, or Medicaid, as these influence the reimbursement rates for the services. Then, the model takes into consideration the population base rates of comorbid conditions for patients with diabetes and the associated current procedural terminology codes to understand what a provider can bill as well as the expected inpatient revenue from a subset of patients likely to require hospitalization based on the national hospitalization rates for people with diabetes. Physician reimbursement is subtracted from the total. Finally, the model also accounts for the level of patient engagement with the intervention to ensure a realistic estimate of the impact. RESULTS: We present a model to prospectively estimate the economic impact of a digital health intervention to encourage patients with documented diabetes diagnoses to attend primary care visits. The model leverages both publicly available and health system data to calculate the per appointment value (revenue) to the health system. The model offers a method to understand and test the financial impact of Precision Nudging or other primary care-focused diabetes interventions inclusive of costs driven by comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed economic model can help health systems understand and evaluate the estimated economic benefits of interventions focused on primary care and prevention for patients with diabetes as well as help intervention developers determine pricing for their product.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".