The InterModel Vigorish as a lens for understanding (and quantifying) the value of item response models for dichotomously coded items
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The deployment of statistical models, such as those used in item response theory (IRT), necessitates the use of indices that are informative about the degree to which a given model is appropriate for a specific data context. We introduce the InterModel Vigorish (IMV) as an index that can be used to quantify accuracy for models of dichotomous item responses based on the improvement across two sets of predictions (i.e., predictions from two item response models or predictions from a single such model relative to prediction based on the mean). This index has a range of desirable features: it can be used for the comparison of non-nested models and its values are highly portable and generalizable. We use this fact to compare predictive performance across a variety of simulated data contexts and also demonstrate qualitative differences in behavior between the IMV and other common indices (e.g., the AIC and RMSEA). We also illustrate the utility of the IMV in empirical applications with data from 89 dichotomous item response datasets. These empirical applications help illustrate how the IMV can be used in practice and substantiate our claims regarding various aspects of model performance. These findings indicate that the IMV may be a useful indicator in psychometrics especially as it allows for easy comparison of predictions across a variety of contexts.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.052 | 0.157 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it