Hybrid Model Based on an SD Selection, CEEMDAN, and Deep Learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting of an Electric Vehicle Fleet
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forecasting the aggregate charging load of a fleet of electric vehicles (EVs) plays an important role in the energy management of the future power system. Therefore, accurate charging load forecasting is necessary for reliable and efficient power system operation. A hybrid method that is a combination of the similar day (SD) selection, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), and deep neural networks is proposed and explored in this paper. For the SD selection, an extreme gradient boosting (XGB)-based weighted k-means method is chosen and applied to evaluate the similarity between the prediction and historical days. The CEEMDAN algorithm, which is an advanced method of empirical mode decomposition (EMD), is used to decompose original data, to acquire intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residuals, and to improve the noise reduction effect. Three popular deep neural networks that have been utilized for load predictions are gated recurrent units (GRUs), long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM). The developed models were assessed on a real-life charging load dataset that was collected from 1000 EVs in nine provinces in Canada from 2017 to 2019. The obtained numerical results of six predictive combination models show that the proposed hybrid SD-CEEMDAN-BiLSTM model outperformed the single and other hybrid models with the smallest forecasting mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.63% Canada-wide.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".