Upscaling Shear Strength of Heterogeneous Oil Sands with Interbedded Shales Using Artificial Neural Network
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Understanding the shear strength of caprock shale and oil sands is important in risk assessment of slope stability in open-pit mining, caprock integrity of in-situ thermal recovery, and optimization of bitumen production from oil sands. A robust and efficient upscaling technique is essential to model the impact of heterogeneity on the deformation and failure of oil sands and caprock shale. Although conventional analytical and numerical upscaling techniques are available, many of these methods consider oversimplified assumptions and have high computational costs, especially when considering the impact of spatially correlated interbedded shales on the shear strength. A machine learning enhanced upscaling (MLEU) technique that leverages the accuracy of local numerical upscaling and the efficiency of artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed here. MLEU uses a fast and accurate ANN proxy model to predict the anisotropic shear strength of heterogeneous oil sands with interbedded shales. The R2 values of the trained ANN models exceed 0.94 for estimating shear strengths in horizontal and vertical directions. The deviation of upscaled shear strength from numerical upscaled results is improved by 12–76% compared with multivariate regression methods like response surface methodology (RSM) and polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). In terms of computational efficiency, the proposed MLEU method can save computational effort by two orders of magnitude compared with numerical upscaling. MLEU provides a reasonable estimate of anisotropic shear strength while considering uncertainties caused by different distributions of shale beddings. With the increasing demand for regional scale modeling of geomechanical problems, the proposed MLEU technique can be extended to other geological settings, where weak beddings play a significant role and the impact of heterogeneity on shear strength is important.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".