The Incidence and Prevalence of Paediatric- and Adult-Onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Denmark During a 37-Year Period: A Nationwide Cohort Study (1980–2017)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Incidence rates of inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] reported from developed countries are rising, with some levelling out. The aim of this study was to assess the disease burden of IBD by estimating the incidence and prevalence across age groups and projecting these to 2030 in a high-incidence country. METHODS: Using an algorithm [incorporating ICD codes, medications and histopathology], patients [n = 69 862] diagnosed with Crohn's disease [CD] or ulcerative colitis [UC] between 1980 and 2017 were identified in the Danish National Patient Registry and included in a nationwide cohort. RESULTS: From 1980 to 2017 the overall incidence of CD increased from 5.1 [95% CI: 4.5-5.8] to 15.6 [95% CI: 14.6-16.6] per 100 000, while the incidence of UC increased from 6.2 [95% CI: 5.5-6.9] to 27.2 [95% CI: 25.9-28.6] per 100 000. For paediatric-onset CD [pCD], the incidence increased from 1.9 [95% CI: 1.2-2.8] to 9.9 [95% CI: 8.1-11.8] per 100 000 and from 1.8 [95% CI: 1.2-2.8] to 8.7 [95% CI: 7.1- 10.5] per 100 000 for paediatric-onset UC [pUC]. In 2017, the prevalence of CD and UC was 293 [95% CI: 288-297] and 523 [95% CI: 517-528] per 100 000. For pCD and pUC, the prevalence was 35 [95% CI: 31-38] and 28 [95% CI: 26-32] per 100 000. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of paediatric- and adult-onset IBD in Denmark continues to increase and is among the highest in the world.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".