Local stressors mask the effects of warming in freshwater ecosystems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate warming is a ubiquitous stressor in freshwater ecosystems, yet its interactive effects with other stressors are poorly understood. We address this knowledge gap by testing the ability of three contrasting null models to predict the joint impacts of warming and a range of other aquatic stressors using a new database of 296 experimental combinations. Despite concerns that stressors will interact to cause synergisms, we found that net impacts were usually best explained by the effect of the stronger stressor alone (the dominance null model), especially if this stressor was a local disturbance associated with human land use. Prediction accuracy depended on stressor identity and how asymmetric stressors were in the magnitude of their effects. These findings suggest we can effectively predict the impacts of multiple stressors by focusing on the stronger stressor, as habitat alteration, nutrients and contamination often override the biological consequences of higher temperatures in freshwater ecosystems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".