Polygon generation and video-to-video translation for time-series prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper proposes an innovative method for time-series prediction in energy-intensive industrial systems characterized by highly dynamic non-linear operations. The proposed method can capture the true distributions of the inputs and outputs of such systems and map these distributions using polygon generation and video-to-video translation techniques. More specifically, the time-series data are represented as polygon streams (videos), then the video-to-video translation is used to transform the input polygon streams into the output ones. This transformation is tuned based on a model trustworthiness metric for optimal video synthesis. Finally, an image processing procedure is used for mapping the output polygon streams back to time-series outputs. The proposed method is based on cycle-consistent generative adversarial networks as an unsupervised approach. This does not need the heavy involvement of the human expert who devotes much effort to labeling the complex industrial data. The performance of the proposed method was validated successfully using a challenging industrial dataset collected from a complex heat exchanger network in a Canadian pulp mill. The results obtained using the proposed method demonstrate better performance than other comparable time-series prediction models. This allows process operators to accurately monitor process key performance indicators (KPIs) and to achieve a more energy-efficient operation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".