Herpes zoster vaccine effectiveness against herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in New Zealand: a retrospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Herpes zoster (HZ) and associated complications cause significant burden to older people. A HZ vaccination programme was introduced in Aotearoa New Zealand in April 2018 with a single dose vaccine for those aged 65 years and a four-year catch up for 66-80 year-olds. This study aimed to assess the 'real-world' effectiveness of the zoster vaccine live (ZVL) against HZ and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN). Methods: We conducted a nationwide retrospective matched cohort study from 1 April 2018 to 1 April 2021 using a linked de-identified patient level Ministry of Health data platform. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate ZVL vaccine effectiveness (VE) against HZ and PHN adjusting for covariates. Multiple outcomes were assessed in the primary (hospitalised HZ and PHN - primary diagnosis) and secondary (hospitalised HZ and PHN: primary and secondary diagnosis, community HZ) analyses. A sub-group analysis was carried out in, adults ≥ 65 years old, immunocompromised adults, Māori, and Pacific populations. Findings: A total of 824,142 (274,272 vaccinated with ZVL matched with 549,870 unvaccinated) New Zealand residents were included in the study. The matched population was 93.4% immunocompetent, 52.2% female, 80.2% European (level 1 ethnic codes), and 64.5% were 65-74 years old (mean age = 71.1±5.0). Vaccinated versus unvaccinated incidence of hospitalised HZ was 0.16 vs. 0.31/1,000 person-years and 0.03 vs. 0.08/1000 person-years for PHN. In the primary analysis, the adjusted overall VE against hospitalised HZ and hospitalised PHN was 57.8% (95% CI: 41.1-69.8) and 73.7% (95% CI:14.0-92.0) respectively. In adults ≥ 65 years old, the VE against hospitalised HZ was 54.4% (95% CI: 36.0-67.5) and VE against hospitalised PHN was 75·5% (95% CI: 19.9-92.5). In the secondary analysis, the VE against community HZ was 30.0% (95% CI: 25.6-34.5). The ZVL VE against hospitalised HZ for immunocompromised adults was 51.1% (95% CI: 23.1-69.5), and PHN hospitalisation was 67.6% (95% CI: 9.3-88.4). The VE against HZ hospitalisation for Māori was 45.2% (95% CI: -23.2-75.6) and for Pacific Peoples was 52.2% (95% CI: -40.6 -83·7). Interpretation: ZVL was associated with a reduction in risk of hospitalisation from HZ and PHN in the New Zealand population. Funding: Wellington Doctoral Scholarship awarded to JFM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".