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Record W4297340986 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2102163/v1

A Shortcut in Bayesian Application

2022· preprint· en· W4297340986 on OpenAlexaff
Jin Wang

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2022
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods and Inference
Canadian institutionsAbbott (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBayesian probabilityComputer scienceEconometricsArtificial intelligenceEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract For a well-established class of medical products, when a similar or improved version of a product in the class has been developed, to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of the new product, the Bayesian approach is gaining popularity to save resource and reduce trial duration by leveraging highly relevant external data. However, the Bayesian approach can appear daunting to practitioners, including statisticians without sufficient exposure to the Bayesian methodology. Instead of using the typical modeling approach to borrow evidence from external data, this paper proposes to quantify the effective sample size from the external data first and then combine the effective portion of the external data with the current trial data through a Bayesian scheme. Guided by the fundamental principles of the central limit theorem and sufficient statistics, the proposed method provides a shortcut to assess and implement the Bayesian methodology in a transparent and generalized fashion. For two selected case studies, the proposed method generates comparable analysis results with those from the typical modeling approaches.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesResearch integrity, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.724
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0000.003
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.259
GPT teacher head0.552
Teacher spread0.293 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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