Causes of Missing Snowmelt Following Drought
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Water management in snowy mountainous regions hinges on forecasting snowmelt runoff. However, droughts are altering snowpack‐runoff relationships with ongoing debate about the driving mechanisms. For example, in 2021 in California, less than half of predicted streamflow arrived. Mechanisms proposed for this “missing” streamflow included changes in evapotranspiration (ET), rainfall, and subsurface moisture conditions. Here, we demonstrate thatETin drought years generates dry subsurface conditions that reduce runoff in subsequent years. A model including this legacy of depleted moisture storage reduced median error in 2021 forecasts from 60% to 20% at 15 minimally disturbed basins and from 18% to 2% at 6 water supply basins in the Sierra Nevada (basins range in area from 5 to 23,051 km2and mean annual precipitation from 814 to 1,549 mm). Our findings indicate that the relationship between snowpack and runoff will evolve as plant ecosystems respond to climate change and alter subsurface water storage dynamics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".