Présentation des perspectives provisoires de la population du Québec, 1981-2001
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Le Bureau de la statistique du Québec publiait récemment des perspectives provisoires de population pour l’ensemble du Québec. Des perspectives multirégionales construites à partir des données propres à chaque région administrative du Québec sont en préparation. Ce nouveau modèle permet de réduire d’au moins un an le délai de disponibilité des prévisions démographiques pour l’ensemble de la province. La population est projetée à l’aide de la matrice de Leslie qui permet de prendre en compte à la fois la fécondité, la mortalité, les déplacements migratoires et le vieillissement annuel. Les prévisions provisoires décrites ici seront remplacées ultérieurement par la somme des prévisions régionales produites par le modèle multirégional du Bureau de la statistique du Québec. Les hypothèses sur lesquelles elles reposent tiennent compte des tendances récentes de la fécondité, de la mortalité et des migrations au Québec.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.020 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.016 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".