Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significant research on Arctic sea ice trends and the potential for resource development have been well documented and illustrated as drivers for changes to Arctic shipping traffic patterns. There is a strong awareness of the potential risks to the environment such as an oil spill in ice as well as impacts on traditional human activity. Similarly, there is awareness that there will be a demand for increased navigation services such as aids to navigation, charting and emergency response capacity. However, many questions remain about what impact sea ice trends and resource development have had on shipping and accidents. To date, the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) project has provided a snapshot of Arctic shipping traffic patterns and activity for the year 2004 and suggests a further research opportunity exists to conduct a trend analysis of shipping activity. The AMSA report suggests that “As marine activity continues to expand in the Arctic, statistical trends indicate that the potential risk of vessel mishaps and marine pollution incidents also increases” (Arctic Council, 2009). However, this is not necessarily the case where risks are managed. Accident trends in the Canadian Arctic suggest that safety management, vessel design and navigation experience have had positive impacts and one must look more closely at specific areas of operation, vessel types and activity to identify opportunities to improve risk management including both prevention and response. So the question remains “What can we learn from recent trends in vessel traffic and accident rates to better understand potential navigation impacts in the future?” Using the AMSA Shipping Database (Arctic Council, 2009) and a spatial trend analysis of Canadian Arctic shipping traffic and vessel accident rates covering the period 1987 to 2008, this paper will report on preliminary findings, show where accident rates are increasing and decreasing, provide traffic trends for each Shipping Safety Control Zone, help to dispel a few myths, and possibly confirm other rumours.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".