Probabilistic photometric redshifts in the era of petascale astronomy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the growth of large photometric surveys, accurately estimating photometric redshifts, preferably as a probability density function (PDF), and fully understanding the implicit systematic uncertainties in this process has become increasingly important. These surveys are expected to obtain images of billions of distinct galaxies. As a result, storing and analyzing all of these photometric redshift PDFs will be non-trivial, and this challenge becomes even more severe if a survey plans to compute and store multiple different PDFs. In this thesis, we have developed an end-to-end framework that will compute accurate and robust photometric redshift PDFs for massive data sets by using two new, state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that are based on a random forest and a random atlas, respectively. By using data from several photometric surveys, we demonstrate the applicability of these new techniques, and we demonstrate that our new approach is among the best techniques currently available. We also show how different techniques can be combined by using novel Bayesian techniques to improve the photometric redshift precision to unprecedented levels while also presenting new approaches to better identify outliers. In addition, our framework provides supplementary information regarding the data being analyzed, including unbiased estimates of the accuracy of the technique without resorting to a validation data set, identification of poor photometric redshift areas within the parameter space occupied by the spectroscopic training data, and a quantification of the relative importance of the variables used during the estimation process. Furthermore, we present a new approach to represent and store photometric redshift PDFs by using a sparse representation with outstanding compression and reconstruction capabilities. We also demonstrate how this framework can also be directly incorporated into cosmological analyses. The new techniques presented in this thesis are crucial to enable the development of precision cosmology in the era of petascale astronomical surveys.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".