The Voters of the FN under Jean Marie Le Pen and Marine Le Pen: Continuity or Change?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The French National Front (FN), currently one of the most successful radical right-wing parties at the electoral booth in Western Europe, has more than doubled its vote share from around 10 per cent in the late 2000s, or the final years of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s presidency, to around 15–25 per cent in the 2010s after Marine Le Pen has taken over the leadership of the party. Aiming to understand the reasons for this increase in the party’s vote and possible differences in the FN voter between Le Pen father and Le Pen daughter, we compare the individual characteristics of the FN voters, as well as the structural conditions in an individual’s surrounding that might influence why somebody votes FN in 2007 and 2012. Except for the fact that the FN electorate became younger in 2012, the core characteristics of the FN voter (for example, low education, dissatisfaction with democracy in France and a working class background) have remained constant. However, what has changed in 2012 is that the FN was more successful in attracting a higher proportion of voters that belong to the socio-demographic strata traditionally, overrepresented within its electorate.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it