Dynamical footprints of hurricanes in the tropical dynamics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Hurricanes-and more broadly tropical cyclones-are high-impact weather phenomena whose adverse socio-economic and ecosystem impacts affect a considerable part of the global population. Despite our reasonably robust meteorological understanding of tropical cyclones, we still face outstanding challenges for their numerical simulations. Consequently, future changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones are still debated. Here, we diagnose possible reasons for the poor representation of tropical cyclones in numerical models, by considering the cyclones as chaotic dynamical systems. We follow 197 tropical cyclones which occurred between 2010 and 2020 in the North Atlantic using the HURDAT2 and ERA5 data sets. We measure the cyclones instantaneous number of active degrees of freedom (local dimension) and the persistence of their sea-level pressure and potential vorticity fields. During the most intense phases of the cyclones, and specifically when cyclones reach hurricane strength, there is a collapse of degrees of freedom and an increase in persistence. The large dependence of hurricanes dynamical characteristics on intensity suggests the need for adaptive parametrization schemes which take into account the dependence of the cyclone's phase, in analogy with high-dissipation intermittent events in turbulent flows.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".