Applied aspects of time series models for predicting residential property prices in Bulgaria
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate housing price forecasts play a critical role in balancing supply and demand in the residential real estate market, as well as in achieving the goals of various stakeholders – buyers, investors, construction contractors, public administration, real estate agencies, special investment purpose companies, etc. The present study aims to investigate the relationship between specific predictors and build a suitable model for forecasting housing prices in Bulgaria. In this regard, a study was conducted on transactions with residential real estate in the city of Sofia for the period from the first quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2021. The ARIMA model is used in the development to predict the values of the variables. Eight models are tested for the researched factors (24 in total). On this basis, the price per square meter of residential property was predicted, including estimated values from the ARIMA model for the parameters involved in the regression equation. The result showed that there is a strong relationship between the analyzed predictors and the studied variable – price per square meter of housing. The tested models are adequate and the statistical requirements for forecasting the prices of residential properties in Bulgaria are complied.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it