An Analysis of Sea Ice Conditions to Determine Ship Transits through the Northwest Passage
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An analysis was carried out to determine the duration of the summer shipping season for Deepwater vessels transiting through the Northwest Passage Route. The most likely route segment to obstruct shipping is in Viscount Melville Sound, which is typically characterized by the presence of high concentration mixtures of the deformed, thick first-year and multiyear ice. The period for ship transits through the Passage is determined from the computer-based analysis of digital Canadian Ice Service weekly ice charts which are available from the late 1960s to the present. Automated computer-based algorithms were developed to estimate the number of if any, weeks with ice conditions that would successfully allow transit. The results show a very large year-to-year variability in the duration of the summer shipping season with the trend towards slightly improving ice conditions. The possibility of future increases in old ice concentrations in western and central portions of Parry Channel due to an apparent trend towards more rapid passage of this old ice through the Queen Elizabeth Islands to the north may impede ship passages in the next decade by comparison with the last decade or two.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".