Oil and Disorder: Youth Crime in North Dakota Boom Communities
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Juveniles contribute to crime in natural resource-based boom communities, but there has been very little research examining the extent of their involvement. To respond to this gap in the literature, two indicators of youth arrests and court referrals in North Dakota—the state hardest hit by the 2000s oil boom—were examined. Although arrest rates for North Dakota youth were more than two times higher than the national average in 2019, almost three-quarters of them were for minor offenses. In addition, arrest and court referral rates in oil-producing counties were lower than those for non oil-producing counties. When controlling for demographic and economic factors, and county-specific fixed effects in panel analyses from 2011 to 2019, oil production is negatively associated with youth arrest rates, but positively associated with juvenile court referrals. However, oil-producing counties had very strong county-specific fixed effects which on average raised youth arrest and court referral rates. Arrest rates were also positively associated with unemployment rates while median household income was negatively associated with Group B offenses and juvenile court referrals. Implications for future research into the boom-crime relationship are discussed in light of these findings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".