Nonlinear multidecadal trends in organic matter dynamics in Midwest reservoirs are a function of variable hydroclimate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) can influence biogeochemical processes in aquatic systems. An understanding, however, of the source, composition, and processes driving inland reservoir organic matter (OM) cycling at a regional scale over the long term is currently unexplored. Here, we quantify decadal patterns (> 20 yr) of DOM quantity and composition and POM in 40 reservoirs in the midcontinent United States. We built 184 Random Forest models to identify how the relative influence of watershed characteristics and limnological parameters on OM dynamics may vary over time and in synchrony with hydroclimatic anomalies. The reservoir OM quantity and composition varied nonmonotonically through time and in contrast to lake browning observed in the northern hemisphere. Reservoir DOM composition switched from humic and aromatic during wet summers to aliphatic, potentially autochthonous DOM during particularly prolonged dry summers in the mid‐2000s. The shift in reservoir DOM quantity and composition could be attributed to the change in time‐varying control of watershed and limnological factors mediated by the hydroclimatic conditions. Watershed control (e.g., percent crops) was predominant during wet summers, while the effect of reservoir morphology (e.g., maximum depth) and water quality parameters (e.g., Secchi depth, chlorophyll a) were evident during dry summers. Thus, future predictions of drier conditions may promote “greening” with negative implications for reservoir water quality and treated drinking water. Considering the nonlinear nature of reservoir OM dynamics and its controls will help to better mitigate water quality issues in these constructed systems increasingly impacted by global changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".