RaVÆn: unsupervised change detection of extreme events using ML on-board satellites
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Applications such as disaster management enormously benefit from rapid availability of satellite observations. Traditionally, data analysis is performed on the ground after being transferred-downlinked-to a ground station. Constraints on the downlink capabilities, both in terms of data volume and timing, therefore heavily affect the response delay of any downstream application. In this paper, we introduce RaVÆn, a lightweight, unsupervised approach for change detection in satellite data based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs), with the specific purpose of on-board deployment. RaVÆn pre-processes the sampled data directly on the satellite and flags changed areas to prioritise for downlink, shortening the response time. We verified the efficacy of our system on a dataset-which we release alongside this publication-composed of time series containing a catastrophic event, demonstrating that RaVÆn outperforms pixel-wise baselines. Finally, we tested our approach on resource-limited hardware for assessing computational and memory limitations, simulating deployment on real hardware.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".