Effects of temperature on monarch caterpillar pigment variation in nature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract 1. Insect colour patterns serve a wide range of ecological functions and the biotic and abiotic factors mediating colour variation in nature have been well characterised. 2. Nonetheless, the majority of studies in this field have focused on adult insects (particularly butterflies). Almost nothing is known about the factors that mediate intra‐specific colour variation in juveniles in nature, even though they are often as conspicuously coloured as their adult counterparts. 3. Here we show that temperature predicts a small but significant amount of monarch ( Danaus plexippus ) caterpillar pigment variation in nature. Over a 650,000‐km 2 region in Canada and the USA, caterpillars found in warmer locations or lower latitudes had thinner black stripes than those found in colder locations or higher latitudes. Caterpillars have also become less black over the last five years, a result consistent with observed short‐term increases in summer temperature in this region. 4. Our study demonstrates that the relationship between temperature and monarch caterpillar pigmentation seen in laboratory settings is also apparent in nature, although with considerable variation. Our study also highlights the utility of online biodiversity repositories such as iNaturalist for characterising pattern and colour variation in nature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".