Population Health Metrics During the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Correlative Pilot Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has caused nearly 1 million deaths in the United States, not to mention job losses, business and school closures, stay-at-home orders, and mask mandates. Many people have suffered increased anxiety and depression since the pandemic began. Not only have mental health symptoms become more prevalent, but alcohol consumption has also increased during this time. Helplines offer important insight into both physical and mental wellness of a population by offering immediate, anonymous, cheap, and accessible resources for health and substance use disorders (SUD) that was unobstructed by many of the mandates of the pandemic. Further, the pandemic also launched the use of wastewater surveillance, which has the potential for tracking not only population infections but also consumption of substances such as alcohol. OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the feasibility of using multiple public surveillance metrics, such as helpline calls, COVID-19 cases, and alcohol metabolites in wastewater, to better understand the need for interventions or public health programs in the time of a public health emergency. METHODS: Ethanol metabolites were analyzed from wastewater collected twice weekly from September 29 to December 4, 2020, in a Midwestern state. Calls made to the helpline regarding housing, health care, and mental health/SUD were correlated with ethanol metabolites analyzed from wastewater samples, as well as the number of COVID-19 cases during the sampling period. RESULTS: Correlations were observed between COVID-19 cases and helpline calls regarding housing and health care needs. No correlation was observed between the number of COVID-19 cases and mental health/SUD calls. COVID-19 cases on Tuesdays were correlated with the alcohol metabolite ethyl glucuronide (EtG). Finally, EtG levels were negatively associated with mental health/SUD helpline calls. CONCLUSIONS: Although helpline calls provided critical services for health care and housing-related concerns early in the pandemic, evidence suggests helpline calls for mental health/SUD-related concerns were unrelated to COVID-19 metrics. Instead, COVID metrics were associated with alcohol metabolites in wastewater. Although this research was formative, with continued and expanded monitoring of population metrics, such as helpline usage, COVID-19 metrics, and wastewater, strategies can be implemented to create precision programs to address the needs of the population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".