Bibliographic record
Abstract
The underlying thesis is that inflation does not impact in a significant way stock returns. A stronger thesis is that both domestic and foreign inflation rates are neutral to stock returns. This joint hypothesis is tested for Canada, using 5 theoretical models that describe the determinants of Canadian stock returns. These models range from the most stripped one to the least constrained. All 5 models produce evidence of the strong inflation irrelevance hypothesis for the two key variables, Canadian and foreign (US) inflation rates. Naturally, the largest theoretical model is to be selected for inference purposes. This model includes 12 explanatory variables: 2 inflation rates, 2 proxies for earnings, 2 local duration effects, 2 foreign (US) duration effects, the Canadian/US dollar foreign exchange rate, the price of oil, and two categorical variables that pick up the effect of foreign (US) stock markets. The results show that the model provides sign and size effects in conformity with expectations from the theoretical macroeconomic interrelationships. Hence, the paper, besides documenting inflation neutrality, models in a meaningful manner the determinants of the stock market. All in all the empirical results are largely supportive.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".